Yesterday
Traders trim rate rise bets on patient RBA
The markets are now pricing in just a 15 chance the cash rate will rise again this year after the Reserve Bank stood pat on Tuesday.
- Updated
- Cecile Lefort
Rising government spending is hurting the RBA’s inflation fight
The Australian economy is still operating at an unsustainably strong level despite a string of weak economic growth figures, due in part to public sector spending.
- Michael Read
- Opinion
- Chanticleer
RBA is still betting on Goldilocks. Investors shouldn’t follow suit
With the ASX 200 back near record levels, investors are betting Michele Bullock is right on a soft landing. But with uncertainty high, a more all-weather approach looks sensible.
- Updated
- James Thomson
Petrol, strong jobs market stoking inflation: RBA
The central bank on Tuesday upgraded its near-term forecasts for headline inflation and pushed back the likelihood of interest rate relief until mid-2025.
- Ronald Mizen
- Updated
- Interest rates
Reserve Bank on high alert for rate rise
The RBA is “very alert” to the cost of stubbornly high inflation lingering in the economy, signalling interest rates will need to stay higher for longer.
- Ronald Mizen
- Opinion
- Chanticleer
Ken Moelis on Trump, interest rates and Ozempic
The billionaire investment banker thinks Donald Trump has his nose in front in the US presidential race, and that could have ramifications for interest rates.
- James Thomson
This Month
RBA’s radio silence fuels extreme rate rise bets
Traders’ bet that the RBA will lift the cash rate is fuelled by the central bank’s lack of communications since March as it undergoes sweeping reporting changes.
- Cecile Lefort
- Exclusive
- WA budget
WA to raise iron ore projections in budget
The WA government will increase its long-term price assumptions for iron ore at this week’s state budget.
- Tom Rabe
- Opinion
- The AFR View
Moment of truth on inflation for Reserve Bank’s credibility
At stake here is whether the supposedly politically independent central bank can re-establish the low inflation foundations that supported three decades of unbroken economic growth until the interruption of the pandemic.
- The AFR View
- Opinion
- Interest rates
Everyone calm down, inflation is not taking off again
The Reserve Bank should be alert to stubborn price pressures, but not alarmed.
- Updated
- Tim Hext
Economists call for tighter immigration to help RBA’s inflation war
Economists from some of the largest banks are urging the government to restrict migrant visas to help ease the housing crisis that is pushing rents and prices of goods higher.
- Updated
- Cecile Lefort
Not just cruises: Boomers direct spending to kids and grandkids
Financial advisors report many over-65s are helping family members rather than splurging – though travel is a thing.
- Joanna Mather and Lucy Dean
High inflation may last another two years unless rates rise again
If Jim Chalmers does not use the budget to cool the economy, the RBA will have little chance of achieving its target without raising interest rates, say economists.
- Michael Read
- Opinion
- Opinion
Central bank independence is dead
Politicians are compromising central banks’ commitments to price stability targets, and the ensuing sticky inflation will require a much tougher cost of capital to extinguish.
- Christopher Joye
OECD warns sticky inflation means rates higher for longer
The warning came as CEOs deliver upbeat assessment of the economy and financial markets push out expectations for rate cuts to May or June 2025, potentially after the next federal election.
- Ronald Mizen, James Eyers, Lucas Baird, Simon Evans, Tess Bennett and Carrie LaFrenz
Markets push interest rate cuts beyond the next election
Investors think the first rate cut may not be until May 2025 or June 2025, complicating Labor’s re-election bid amid red-hot voter concern over cost of living.
- Michael Read
Powell signals rates will stay higher for longer
The US Federal Reserve has kept rates unchanged but chairman Jerome Powell said inflation was still too high despite “sufficiently restrictive” policy.
- Updated
- Matthew Cranston
Markets cheer after Fed chief rules out rate increases
Traders have ramped up US rate cut bets this year after the Federal Reserve kept interest rates on hold, but the prospect of higher rates in Australia this year is still on the cards.
- Cecile Lefort
- Opinion
- Federal Reserve
The US presidential election is casting a long shadow over the Fed
Lingering inflation has caused hopes for US interest rate cuts to wither. That means the Federal Reserve risks becoming dragged into a divisive election.
- Karen Maley
- Opinion
- Chanticleer
Investors aren’t falling for Powell’s ‘confidence’ trick
The Fed chairman has made it clear the bar for a rate rise is very high. But while he hasn’t lost faith in disinflation, rate cuts are moving further away, too.
- James Thomson
