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Policy

Economy

Yesterday

An RBA tightening bias is called for

It’s hard not to interpret the governor’s press conference and the board’s statement as at least a mild tightening bias that will keep the cash rate where it is at least until near the end of 2024.

  • The AFR View
RBA governor Michele Bullock speaks at a news conference after the bank said interest rates would stay on hold.

‘We need to be alert and vigilant’: Michele Bullock

This is an edited and abridged transcript of a press conference held by Reserve Bank of Australia governor Michele Bullock.

RBA governor Michele Bullock fronts a press conference after the bank announced rates would stay on hold.

Rising government spending is hurting the RBA’s inflation fight

The Australian economy is still operating at an unsustainably strong level despite a string of weak economic growth figures, due in part to public sector spending.

  • Michael Read
RBA governor Michele Bullock.

Why data-driven Bullock has her eye on the budget

RBA governor Michele Bullock says it’s too early to declare victory over inflation as she avoids the markets’ frenzied guessing game on interest rates.

  • Jennifer Hewett
The unemployment data re-enforces why RBA governor Michele Bullock sounds so cautious about the prospect of rate cuts.

RBA is still betting on Goldilocks. Investors shouldn’t follow suit

With the ASX 200 back near record levels, investors are betting Michele Bullock is right on a soft landing. But with uncertainty high, a more all-weather approach looks sensible.

  • Updated
  • James Thomson
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Victorian Treasurer Tim Pallas delivers his budget to the Victorian Parliament on May 07, 2024.

Labor dodges difficult debt decisions

Treasurer Tim Pallas has not delivered the “horror budget” he prepared the ground for, nor a clear path back from the state’s crippling debt levels.

  • Patrick Durkin
The Qantas board has more to do to recover its national stnading.

Qantas must atone for all old baggage

Readers’ letters on the Qantas settlement; franking credits for retirees; the Coalition push for nuclear power; and Israel’s closure of Al Jazeera.

‘Vigilant’ RBA puts home loan borrowers on notice

Governor Michele Bullock has issued a fresh warning to mortgage holders, two years after the Reserve Bank of Australia began raising interest rates.

  • Updated
  • John Kehoe
The RBA’s latest outlook for the economy means interest rates will need to stay higher for longer.

Petrol, strong jobs market stoking inflation: RBA

The central bank on Tuesday upgraded its near-term forecasts for headline inflation and pushed back the likelihood of interest rate relief until mid-2025.

  • Ronald Mizen
Reserve Bank governor Michele Bullock during her post-meeting press conference in Sydney on Tuesday.

Reserve Bank on high alert for rate rise

The RBA is “very alert” to the cost of stubbornly high inflation lingering in the economy, signalling interest rates will need to stay higher for longer.

  • Ronald Mizen
When the average Australian has to think twice about ordering her $6 daily coffee (which cost $3.34 10 years ago), that’s when we really need to stop and think.

Reforms rather than rate rises

Supply side deregulation to drive productivity is the other half of the policy armoury that should be deployed to help curb inflation and keep employment full.

  • The Parrhesian
Victoria and likely NSW have established their own makeshift coal capacity schemes.

Keeping coal but excluding gas is an irrational path to net zero

Including gas-generation in the back-up electricity mechanism will help avoid taxpayer funds being used for paradoxical cross-purposes.

  • Steve Davies
Ken Moelis says Jay Powell won’t want to be seen to be involved in politics.

Ken Moelis on Trump, interest rates and Ozempic

The billionaire investment banker thinks Donald Trump has his nose in front in the US presidential race, and that could have ramifications for interest rates. 

  • James Thomson

This Month

About 30 per cent of HECS debt has been written off as unlikely ever to be recovered.

Reinstate HECS discount to recover debt

Readers’ letters on the reduction in indexation rates for HECS debt; the crackdown on the big four accountancy firms and lobby groups making submissions to the government ahead of the budget.

Falling house prices quickly dampen the appetite to spend.

Interest rates are the only tool for managing inflation

Economists are looking for other ways of braking inflation. But the impact of interest rates on housing costs is still the most reliable means.

  • Luke Hartigan and Stella Huangfu
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The Chinese-owned Tianqi lithium hydroxide plant at Kwinana, south of Perth.

It’s economically naive to cut China out of direct investment

There may be more “like-minded” investors out there for Australia’s resources sector, but will they be as competitive and efficient as China has proven to be?

  • James Laurenceson
A family-owned fishing charter business in operation.

The great success story of Indigenous enterprise is missing

Indigenous businesses have proven robust and resilient against all the odds – that should be included in the Closing the Gap reports as well.

  • Michelle Evans and Cain Polidano
Former Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe still sees upside risk for rates.

Philip Lowe warns rates could rise again

The former RBA governor says with data surprising on the strong side getting back to a 2.5 per cent inflation level sustainably is not yet guaranteed.

  • Patrick Durkin and John Kehoe
RBA governor Michele Bullock needs to reinforce the central bank’s resolve in tackling stubbornly high inflation.

Moment of truth on inflation for Reserve Bank’s credibility

At stake here is whether the supposedly politically independent central bank can re-establish the low inflation foundations that supported three decades of unbroken economic growth until the interruption of the pandemic.

  • The AFR View
Treasurer Jim Chalmers will deliver the budget on May 14.

Big government spending to widen budget deficits

Next week’s federal budget will be expansionary, not contractionary as some economists have called for, and will do less to contain inflation and interest rate pressures than Jim Chalmers’ previous surplus budgets.

  • John Kehoe